← Poly Research & Robotics
kch123 · Trader Analysis
← Poly Research & Robotics
kch123 · Trader Analysis
Wallet: 0x6a72...3033ee | January 1 – March 30, 2026 | 78,148 trades across 1,119 markets
kch123 is a high-volume Polymarket sports bettor operating from a single wallet. Over the 3-month observation period, he placed 78,148 trades across 1,119 distinct binary outcome markets, wagering a total of $76.5M in notional value.
He trades almost exclusively on the BUY side (99.9% of all trades), taking directional positions on outcomes he believes are mispriced. His trading style is characterized by concentrated bursts — he identifies a market he likes and then builds a position across many small fills rather than placing single large orders.
His strongest edge appears in the $0.40–$0.70 price range, where he consistently finds mispriced outcomes with enough payout to justify the risk. He is less effective at the extremes — below $0.20 (too speculative) and above $0.70 (wins often but payouts are too thin).
| Side Preference | 99.9% BUY |
| Avg Trades/Day | ~1,070 |
| Execution | Many small fills per market |
| Sweet Spot | $0.40–$0.70 entry price |
| Peak Hours | 12am–5am, 9am–3pm |
| Weak Hours | 4pm–6pm, 8pm, 10pm |
| Best Categories | CFB, NFL, CBB |
| Weakest | UFC, crypto, politics |
ROI measured during kch123's profitable trading hours only.
| Category | ROI | Green Weeks | Win Rate | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB (College Football) | +38.0% | 3/3 | 94.8% | Elite |
| NFL | +33.5% | 5/6 | 89.4% | Elite |
| CBB (College Basketball) | +22.5% | 9/10 | 61.6% | Strong |
| NHL | +10.1% | 6/12 | — | Modest |
| NBA | -3.5% | 7/12 | — | Unprofitable |
| UFC | -63.3% | 1/2 | — | Disastrous |
| Other (crypto, politics) | -54.9% | 0/2 | — | Avoid |
kch123's edge is concentrated in football and college basketball. NFL and CFB show exceptional win rates above 89%. His NBA, UFC, and non-sports trades actively lose money.
January was by far his highest-volume month, driven by NFL playoffs and CFB bowl season. February was quiet — likely due to the NFL season ending. March picked up again with the CBB tournament and NHL.
Measured using kch123's filtered trade set (BUY only, $0.20–$0.70 price range, profitable hours, sports categories), scaled to a $1,000/day benchmark.
| Week | Dates | Days | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win % | P/L | Cumul P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W01 | Jan 1–4 | 4 | 1,546 | 853 | 693 | 55.2% | +$902 | $902 |
| W02 | Jan 5–11 | 7 | 1,730 | 1,212 | 518 | 70.1% | +$4,714 | $5,616 |
| W03 | Jan 12–18 | 7 | 3,746 | 2,809 | 937 | 75.0% | +$1,419 | $7,036 |
| W04 | Jan 19–25 | 7 | 1,641 | 796 | 845 | 48.5% | +$486 | $7,522 |
| W05 | Jan 27–Feb 1 | 6 | 11,588 | 11,406 | 182 | 98.4% | +$13,761 | $21,283 |
| W06 | Feb 2–8 | 5 | 1,075 | 371 | 704 | 34.5% | -$2,370 | $18,913 |
| W07 | Feb 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | +$1,128 | $20,040 |
| W09 | Feb 23–Mar 1 | 7 | 1,214 | 803 | 411 | 66.1% | +$3,494 | $23,535 |
| W10 | Mar 2–8 | 7 | 832 | 374 | 458 | 45.0% | +$469 | $24,004 |
| W11 | Mar 9–15 | 7 | 1,644 | 1,229 | 415 | 74.8% | -$2,278 | $21,726 |
| W12 | Mar 16–22 | 7 | 446 | 172 | 274 | 38.6% | +$1,588 | $23,315 |
| W13 | Mar 23–29 | 7 | 609 | 209 | 400 | 34.3% | +$272 | $23,586 |
| W14 | Mar 30 | 1 | 172 | 164 | 8 | 95.3% | +$2,068 | $25,654 |
| TOTAL | 73 | 26,244 | 20,399 | 5,845 | 77.7% | +$25,654 | ||
| Price Range | Trades | Wins | Win % | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00 – $0.10 | 650 | 33 | 5.1% | Highly speculative, almost always wrong |
| $0.10 – $0.20 | 1,126 | 133 | 11.8% | Low conviction, poor hit rate |
| $0.20 – $0.30 | 3,277 | 987 | 30.1% | Begins finding edge |
| $0.30 – $0.40 | 5,622 | 1,373 | 24.4% | High volume, mixed results |
| $0.40 – $0.50 | 28,546 | 18,542 | 65.0% | Core sweet spot — highest volume |
| $0.50 – $0.60 | 11,727 | 5,928 | 50.5% | Solid at coinflip-range |
| $0.60 – $0.70 | 12,119 | 9,289 | 76.6% | Highest win rate in sweet spot |
| $0.70 – $0.80 | 7,688 | 5,247 | 68.2% | Wins often but payout shrinks |
| $0.80 – $0.90 | 5,400 | 4,207 | 77.9% | Payout too thin for losses |
| $0.90 – $1.00 | 1,993 | 1,875 | 94.1% | Near-certainties, minimal upside |
63 out of 65 rolling 15-day windows were profitable when filtering to kch123's strong categories and hours (96.9%). Only the final two windows (late March) showed modest losses. Without filtering, only 62% of windows were profitable — confirming that kch123's edge is real but concentrated in specific conditions.
| Market | Trades | Wagered |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 10,125 | $1.01M |
| Rams vs. Bears | 3,470 | $924K |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 2,480 | $745K |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | 1,641 | $337K |
| UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes | 1,160 | $299K |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | 964 | $96K |
| Islanders vs. Blue Jackets | 950 | $24K |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | 871 | $85K |
| Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 | 850 | $76K |
| Flames vs. Blackhawks | 744 | $76K |
NFL markets dominate his top positions. His largest single-market concentration was the Seahawks spread with over 10,000 fills.
kch123 shows a clear, consistent edge in NFL and CFB markets. Win rates above 89% in these categories are not random over 3 months of data. His football reads are the foundation of his profitability.
His performance collapses during 4pm–6pm and at 10pm, likely due to market efficiency increasing as more participants trade during prime evening hours. His edge is strongest in off-peak hours.
NBA trades are slightly negative, UFC is deeply unprofitable (-63.3% ROI), and non-sports markets (crypto, politics) are disasters. His skill does not generalize outside football and basketball.
Summary: kch123 is a high-volume directional sports bettor with a genuine, measurable edge in football and college basketball on Polymarket. His advantage is concentrated in specific price ranges ($0.20–$0.70), specific hours, and specific sports. Outside those conditions, his performance is average to poor. Over 3 months and 78,148 trades, the pattern is consistent enough to be considered a real skill rather than luck.