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SWISSTONY · Trader Analysis
← Poly Research & Robotics
SWISSTONY · Trader Analysis
Wallet: 0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14 | Mar 15 – Apr 01, 2026 | 420,638 trades across 11,060 markets
This wallet is an always-on, fair-value-driven sports bot fanning capital across global soccer, tennis, and US sports. Across the 18-day window it placed 420,638 trades (23,369/day) through 11,060 distinct markets spanning 2,941 events. Every ticket is a BUY — there are zero sell-side exits in the dataset. The position, once opened, is held to resolution.
Median ticket is $9.85; the P95 is $400 and the largest single fill in the window was $53,871. The top 5% of trades carry 63.6% of the capital — a power-law sizing profile where tiny probes map the book and a small handful of large fills express conviction. Intra-market consecutive-fill gap is 26s median with 40.5% of pairs firing in under ten seconds — a latency signature no human can sustain.
The surface looks like a market maker: 76.9% of markets see both sides bought, the median paired cost is $1.0033, and only 48.1% of paired markets close under $1.00. But the real edge lives in the asymmetry: 63.2% of both-sides markets tilt 3× or heavier toward one outcome, and that dominant side wins 78.3% of the time. Collapsed onto the dominant leg only, this wallet's high-conviction subset turns in 176,529 trades at a 71.1% win rate and +$2,643,798 realized P/L (+11.2% ROI) — several multiples of the unfiltered book.
The unfiltered P/L of +$361,752 on $40.58M deployed (+0.89% ROI) is thin because the hedge leg drags: mean paired cost is $1.0220, meaning the book systematically overpays for the losing side. The trader relies on directional accuracy at 3×+ to overcome the negative spread — and almost does, but just barely.
| Archetype | Global sports bot · pseudo-MM, directional |
| Side Preference | 100.0% BUY · 0.0% SELL |
| Avg Trades / Active Day | 23,369 |
| Execution Style | Burst bot — small probes, burst fills, no selling |
| Sweet-Spot Price Band | $0.30–$0.40 (+11.99% ROI, 46,783 trades) |
| Peak Hours (UTC) | 17:00, 00:00, 10:00 |
| Weak Hours (UTC) | 20:00, 21:00, 18:00 |
| Best Category | Soccer (+$146,129, +0.53%) |
| Weakest Category | NBA (-$5,796, -0.14%) |
This section is a forensic reconstruction of what the underlying system likely looks like based on observed trade behavior. It is an engineering hypothesis built from timing signatures, sizing distributions, market coverage, and execution latency — not a claim about the operator's actual infrastructure.
In one sentence: this looks like an always-on fair-value comparator that polls Polymarket markets, compares them to an external sports-odds feed, sizes proportionally to the gap, fires small probes then large fills through parallel HTTP workers, and opportunistically hedges the other side to bank the spread where the book allows it. The edge lives in the fair-value model at 3×+ imbalance; the hedge leg is a variance dampener, not a profit source.
Classified by slug + market keywords. Soccer is the load-bearing book (262,156 trades, $27.72M); Tennis is the cleanest high-ROI vertical.
| Category | Trades | Volume | Win Rate | ROI | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 262,156 | $27.72M | 53.2% | +0.53% | Modest +$146,129 |
| Tennis | 44,684 | $4.82M | 53.4% | +1.87% | Modest +$89,632 |
| NBA | 55,824 | $4.21M | 51.8% | -0.14% | Flat -$5,796 |
| CBB | 16,092 | $1.39M | 50.3% | +3.17% | Modest+ +$43,859 |
| Other | 19,863 | $1.07M | 56.5% | +4.84% | Modest+ +$51,924 |
| NFL | 7,208 | $499.5K | 52.7% | +1.76% | Modest +$8,769 |
| NHL | 8,580 | $472.0K | 52.5% | +2.52% | Modest+ +$11,888 |
| MLB | 6,231 | $413.1K | 54.3% | +3.71% | Modest+ +$15,346 |
Soccer carries the volume and the absolute P/L (+$146,129), but Tennis earns a nearly identical dollar profit on one-sixth the capital — +1.87% ROI vs +0.53%. NBA is the only category where the bot is in the red, and it does so on the second-largest volume footprint — a structural weakness worth filtering.
Range spans ISO weeks 11–14. Daily volatility is high: single-day P/L swings from -$254K to +$303K.
Resolved-BUY P/L by ISO week. 4 weeks cover 18 active days; cumulative P/L closes at +$361,752.
| Week | Dates | Trades | W | L | Win % | P/L | Cumul |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W11 | 2026-03-15→2026-03-15 | 43,164 | 23,640 | 19,524 | 54.8% | +$302,538 | +$302,538 |
| W12 | 2026-03-16→2026-03-22 | 207,247 | 112,264 | 94,983 | 54.2% | +$6,789 | +$309,327 |
| W13 | 2026-03-23→2026-03-29 | 118,258 | 60,095 | 58,163 | 50.8% | +$46,661 | +$355,988 |
| W14 | 2026-03-30→2026-04-01 | 51,688 | 27,075 | 24,613 | 52.4% | +$5,764 | +$361,752 |
| Total | 420,357 | 223,074 | 197,283 | 53.1% | +$361,752 | +$361,752 | |
| Price Range | Trades | Wins | Win % | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00–$0.10 | 15,199 | 1,344 | 8.8% | Edge Zone +36.61% ROI |
| $0.10–$0.20 | 27,043 | 4,285 | 15.8% | Break-even +1.55% ROI |
| $0.20–$0.30 | 40,002 | 10,498 | 26.2% | Edge Zone +10.28% ROI |
| $0.30–$0.40 | 46,783 | 17,148 | 36.7% | Edge Zone +11.99% ROI |
| $0.40–$0.50 | 66,600 | 29,287 | 44.0% | Toxic -9.12% ROI |
| $0.50–$0.60 | 69,507 | 39,008 | 56.1% | Profitable +7.00% ROI |
| $0.60–$0.70 | 49,063 | 31,676 | 64.6% | Break-even -1.89% ROI |
| $0.70–$0.80 | 43,081 | 32,605 | 75.7% | Toxic -2.18% ROI |
| $0.80–$0.90 | 31,575 | 26,971 | 85.4% | Break-even -0.83% ROI |
| $0.90–$1.00 | 31,504 | 30,252 | 96.0% | Break-even +1.04% ROI |
18 of 18 rolling 15-day windows and 18 of 18 rolling 7-day windows close green. The 15-day window peaks at +$361,733 and bottoms at +$44,199 — the spread reflects one outlier day (March 15: +$302,538) rolling in and out of the window. Strip that single Saturday out and the book is barely above flat — a fragility this wallet should consider diversifying against.
| Market | Trades | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? | 1,089 | $412.6K |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | 397 | $306.6K |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? | 174 | $232.1K |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? | 351 | $223.2K |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | 161 | $211.5K |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? | 352 | $209.6K |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? | 334 | $189.6K |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? | 327 | $185.6K |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? | 365 | $179.8K |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? | 238 | $171.2K |
Top 10 markets account for $2.32M of volume (5.7% of book). The single-biggest line (Real Madrid 3/22) was also the single-worst P/L at -$220,164 — the bot overwhelmingly bought the 'No' side (887 of 1,089 BUY tickets) expecting Madrid to drop points; Madrid won. That one market is roughly 60% of the month's realized P/L in the wrong direction.
Dominance ratio is the dominant story. Of 8,508 both-sides markets, 5,374 (63.2%) tilt 3× or more to one outcome, and that side wins 78.3% of the time — compared to 51.0% at 1.0–1.5×. Stripping to just the dominant leg on conviction bets (≥2.0×) yields 71.1% WR, +11.25% ROI, and +$2,643,798 P/L — many multiples of the unfiltered book. The signal is real.
Capital is concentrated — soccer is 68% of volume and two European leagues (LaLiga, Premier League) drive most of that. Tennis is the highest-ROI vertical at +1.87%. NBA and the 0.40–0.50 price band both destroy value (NBA at -$5,796; 0.40–0.50 at -$524,864). Hours 18:00–21:00 UTC hemorrhage money (-$527,244 combined) — the book should be paused or sized down in that window.
This wallet is not a true market maker. Mean paired cost is $1.0220 — above fair — meaning the spread leg carries negative expected value (-$377,558 of theoretical spread P/L) and hedge tax on the losing side totals $14.58M. All realized profit comes from the dominant-side directional call at high conviction. One day (March 15) delivered 84% of the entire month's P/L; the 17-day residue nets roughly +$59K. A single rough Sunday, or a Champions League night like March 17 (−$253K), can reverse weeks of edge.
Summary: A 24/7 sports bot that opened 420,638 BUY tickets across 11,060 markets in 18 days and never sold a share. It wears the clothes of a market maker — 77% both-sides participation, $9.85 median ticket, burst-fill latency — but its paired cost runs slightly above $1.00, so the spread does not fund the book. The edge is purely directional and shows up only when the bot tilts 3× or harder: in that regime the dominant side wins 78% of the time and drives $2.64M of filtered P/L. The unfiltered book realizes +$361,752 at +0.89% ROI on $40.6M deployed — respectable, but disproportionately owed to one outperforming Saturday and vulnerable to European upset nights. A replicator should trade the conviction-leg-only subset, force paired cost below $1.00 before firing both legs, skip 18:00–21:00 UTC, and cap single-market exposure below the $400K Real Madrid-style concentration that cost six figures in this window.
The findings in this report are produced entirely from publicly observable on-chain and off-chain trade data sourced through the Polymarket data API and CLOB. They represent a data-driven reconstruction — an informed hypothesis about the trader's strategy, infrastructure, and edge — not a verified account of the operator's actual systems, intentions, or internal models.
The "Technical Breakdown" and "Key Findings" sections in particular are inferential. Plausible alternative architectures could produce similar trade footprints, and this analysis does not claim to have identified the specific one in use. Numerical results (win rates, P/L, ROI, dominance buckets) are deterministic for this observation window; interpretive claims (archetype, sizing model, hedge logic, stack composition) are best-guess reconstructions based on statistical patterns.
Readers should treat this report as analytical commentary rather than as a factual disclosure. Past performance does not indicate future results, historical patterns may not persist, and any attempt to replicate or trade alongside the documented behavior is done at the reader's own risk. Poly Research & Robotics makes no representation that these findings are complete, accurate in every respect, or predictive of the trader's ongoing activity.