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VidarX · Trader Analysis
← Poly Research & Robotics
VidarX · Trader Analysis
Wallet: 0x2d8b401d2f0e6937afebf18e19e11ca568a5260a | Mar 15 – Apr 16, 2026 | 1,025,598 trades across 7,403 markets
This wallet is an always-on automated trader with capital concentrated almost entirely in Crypto (100% of volume). Across the 32-day window it placed 1,025,598 trades (32,050/day) through 7,403 distinct markets spanning 7,402 events. Ticket mix is 100.00% BUY, only 8 SELL trades in the entire window — positions are overwhelmingly held to resolution.
Median ticket is $5.80; the P95 is $39 and the largest single fill in the window was $22,090. The top 5% of trades carry 23.0% of the capital — a power-law sizing profile where tiny probes map the book and a small handful of large fills express conviction. Intra-market consecutive-fill gap is 0s median with 93.0% of pairs firing in under ten seconds — a latency signature no human can sustain.
This is a classical market maker: 93.3% of markets see both sides bought and the median paired cost is $0.9917 — below the $1.00 no-arb line. 54.7% of paired markets close under $1.00 and 36.6% close under $0.97, which is real, repeatable spread capture. On top of that, the conviction curve adds a directional layer: 27.5% of both-sides markets tilt 3× or heavier to one outcome, and that dominant side wins 84.2% of the time. The high-conviction subset (dominance ≥ 2.0×, dominant leg only) closes at 212,477 trades, 81.2% win rate, and +$820,956 realized P/L (+22.52% ROI).
The unfiltered P/L of +$103,949 on $11.98M deployed (+0.87% ROI) understates the quality of the mechanism: the book pays itself through the spread, and the hedge-tax drag ($4.74M) is variance-reduction expense, not a loss leader. The directional layer on top scales the upside when conviction is strong.
| Archetype | Classical market maker · crypto-focused |
| Side Preference | 100.0% BUY · 0.0% SELL |
| Avg Trades / Active Day | 32,050 |
| Execution Style | Burst bot — small probes, burst fills, no selling |
| Sweet-Spot Price Band | $0.10–$0.20 (+3.52% ROI, 64,155 trades) |
| Peak Hours (UTC) | 05:00, 08:00, 17:00 |
| Weak Hours (UTC) | 21:00, 04:00, 03:00 |
| Best Category | Crypto (+$125,538, +1.05%) |
| Weakest Category | — (single-vertical book) |
This section is a forensic reconstruction of what the underlying system likely looks like based on observed trade behavior. It is an engineering hypothesis built from timing signatures, sizing distributions, market coverage, and execution latency — not a claim about the operator's actual infrastructure.
In one sentence: this looks like an always-on fair-value comparator that polls Polymarket markets, compares them to an external sports-odds feed, sizes proportionally to the gap, fires small probes then large fills through parallel HTTP workers, and opportunistically hedges the other side to bank the spread where the book allows it. The edge lives in the fair-value model at 3×+ imbalance; the hedge leg is a variance dampener, not a profit source.
Classified by slug + market keywords. Crypto is the load-bearing book (1,025,587 trades, $11.96M, 100% of total capital).
| Category | Trades | Volume | Win Rate | ROI | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1,025,587 | $11.96M | 48.4% | +1.05% | Modest +$125,538 |
| Other | 11 | $31.2K | 66.7% | -88.49% | Thin Sample -$21,589 |
The book is monolithic — virtually all activity lives in a single vertical (Crypto). Efficiency is consistent across the footprint at +1.05% ROI, +$125,538 absolute. There is no cross-category comparison to make — this is a single-vertical specialist.
Range spans ISO weeks 11–14. Daily volatility is high: single-day P/L swings from -$254K to +$303K.
Resolved-BUY P/L by ISO week. 6 weeks cover 32 active days; cumulative P/L closes at +$103,949.
| Week | Dates | Trades | W | L | Win % | P/L | Cumul |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W11 | 2026-03-15→2026-03-15 | 58,471 | 26,474 | 31,997 | 45.3% | +$3,478 | +$3,478 |
| W12 | 2026-03-16→2026-03-22 | 243,484 | 115,275 | 128,209 | 47.3% | +$35,148 | +$38,626 |
| W13 | 2026-03-23→2026-03-29 | 269,273 | 131,003 | 138,270 | 48.7% | +$48,612 | +$87,238 |
| W14 | 2026-03-30→2026-04-05 | 228,688 | 112,393 | 116,295 | 49.1% | +$10,341 | +$97,579 |
| W15 | 2026-04-06→2026-04-11 | 158,597 | 78,646 | 79,951 | 49.6% | -$1,857 | +$95,723 |
| W16 | 2026-04-13→2026-04-16 | 67,077 | 32,844 | 34,233 | 49.0% | +$8,227 | +$103,949 |
| Total | 1,025,590 | 496,635 | 528,955 | 48.4% | +$103,949 | +$103,949 | |
| Price Range | Trades | Wins | Win % | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00–$0.10 | 22,066 | 1,454 | 6.6% | Profitable +3.41% ROI |
| $0.10–$0.20 | 64,155 | 9,741 | 15.2% | Profitable +3.52% ROI |
| $0.20–$0.30 | 110,124 | 27,994 | 25.4% | Break-even +1.79% ROI |
| $0.30–$0.40 | 179,051 | 63,212 | 35.3% | Break-even +1.16% ROI |
| $0.40–$0.50 | 178,798 | 77,544 | 43.4% | Break-even +0.82% ROI |
| $0.50–$0.60 | 142,777 | 80,265 | 56.2% | Break-even +0.36% ROI |
| $0.60–$0.70 | 166,036 | 107,516 | 64.8% | Break-even -0.08% ROI |
| $0.70–$0.80 | 101,436 | 75,596 | 74.5% | Break-even +0.82% ROI |
| $0.80–$0.90 | 50,894 | 43,647 | 85.8% | Profitable +2.49% ROI |
| $0.90–$1.00 | 10,253 | 9,666 | 94.3% | Profitable +2.57% ROI |
33 of 33 rolling 15-day windows (100%) and 30 of 33 rolling 7-day windows close green. The 15-day window peaks at +$87,238 and bottoms at +$3,478 — the spread between peak and trough tells you how consistent the edge is across the observation. A consistently green rolling curve implies a durable signal; a curve that dips into the red on any window indicates fragility that a replicator would want to stress-test before scaling.
| Market | Trades | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | 9 | $28.9K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | 498 | $13.0K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | 513 | $12.9K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | 574 | $12.3K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | 556 | $12.1K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | 479 | $11.6K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | 459 | $11.5K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | 414 | $11.1K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | 874 | $11.0K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | 884 | $10.7K |
Top 10 markets account for $135.1K of volume (1.1% of book). Top 10 carry only 1.1% of book — capital is distributed very broadly across the 7,403-market footprint. The single-biggest line — Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? — resolved to -$22,090 P/L on 9 fills.
Dominance ratio is the dominant story. Of 6,905 both-sides markets, 1,900 (27.5%) tilt 3× or more to one outcome, and that side wins 84.2% of the time — compared to 57.9% at 1.0–1.5×. Stripping to just the dominant leg on conviction bets (≥2.0×) yields 81.2% WR, +22.52% ROI, and +$820,956 P/L — many multiples of the unfiltered book. The signal is real.
Capital is concentrated — Crypto is 100% of volume. The highest-ROI vertical with meaningful sample is Crypto at +1.05%. The worst-performing category is Crypto at +$125,538 (+1.05% ROI); the worst-performing price band is $0.60–$0.70 at -$2,164. Hours 03:00, 13:00, 18:00, 23:00 UTC are the weakest four-hour footprint (+$11,740 combined) — the book should be paused or sized down in that window.
This wallet is a true market maker. Mean paired cost is $0.9910 — below the $1.00 no-arb line — so the paired leg itself is positive-EV. Spread P/L contributes +$58,509 of theoretical risk-free yield, while the $4.74M in hedge-tax outflow is the cost of variance reduction, not a true drag. Combined with the dominant-side directional accuracy at 3×+ (84.2% WR), the structure is self-funding: spread capture pays the desk to show up, and conviction sizing scales the upside when the signal is strong. This is the textbook shape of a profitable automated market maker.
Summary: A 24/7 automated trader that opened 1,025,598 BUY tickets across 7,403 markets in 32 days with only 8 SELL trades. Structurally it presents as a true market maker: 93% both-sides participation, $5.80 median ticket, 93% of consecutive fills under 10 seconds, and median same-market gap of 0s — and the paired cost of $0.9910 is below fair, so the spread leg is genuinely positive-EV. The conviction curve is unambiguous: dominant side win rate climbs from 58% at 1.0–1.5× to 84% at 3.0×+, and the dominant-leg-only subset realizes +$820,956 at +22.52% ROI. The unfiltered book closes +$103,949 at +0.87% ROI on $12.0M deployed. A replicator should focus on the high-conviction leg, enforce a paired-cost ceiling below $1.00, and bias sizing toward the price bands and hours where the book's historical ROI is cleanest.
The findings in this report are produced entirely from publicly observable on-chain and off-chain trade data sourced through the Polymarket data API and CLOB. They represent a data-driven reconstruction — an informed hypothesis about the trader's strategy, infrastructure, and edge — not a verified account of the operator's actual systems, intentions, or internal models.
The "Technical Breakdown" and "Key Findings" sections in particular are inferential. Plausible alternative architectures could produce similar trade footprints, and this analysis does not claim to have identified the specific one in use. Numerical results (win rates, P/L, ROI, dominance buckets) are deterministic for this observation window; interpretive claims (archetype, sizing model, hedge logic, stack composition) are best-guess reconstructions based on statistical patterns.
Readers should treat this report as analytical commentary rather than as a factual disclosure. Past performance does not indicate future results, historical patterns may not persist, and any attempt to replicate or trade alongside the documented behavior is done at the reader's own risk. Poly Research & Robotics makes no representation that these findings are complete, accurate in every respect, or predictive of the trader's ongoing activity.